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Should Argentina Dollarize Or Float
By:Wissam Moussa Zgheib,American University of Beirut. School of Business
Published on 2004 by

The financial crisis in Argentina is due to various economic and non economic factors, the most significant of which are external to the country, such as the impact of the 1997- 1998 East Asian Crisis, the 1998 Russian devaluation, and the 2000- 20 01 global economic downturn. More importantly, the strategy implemented by the IMF which emphasized on a zero- deficit program after having arranged massive amount s of loans to support the country's currency was a huge mistake. In fact, Argentina's currency board system is what contributed largely to the financial crisis, as economic activity was directly reduced by the large capital outflows that were prevalent during the global financial depression alongside the increas e in the interest rates. Although the current situation of Argentina is not encouraging at all since the country is on the edge of a complete collapse and since the IMF refuses to relea se more aid to Argentina, there is reason to believe that the economy is able to recover without external financing, aided by privatization, deregulation of the economy, and the reforms that were implemented earlier by the government. The assessment of the criteria that make a country a good candidate for dollarization (its experience with inflation, its current exchange rate regime, the reserve coverage of monetary base, the degree of soundness of the banking system, the ex tent of unofficial dollarization, the country's inability to borrow long- term in domest ic currency, the country's fiscal record, the spread between local dollar- denomina ted and local currency- denominated interest rates, trade integration with the U.S., fl exibility of labor markets, degree of capital mobility, political factors) suggests that the implementation of an official dollarization in Argentina could be an effective p lan. After comparing Lebanon with Argentina, we listed a number of options that we think Argentina has to analyze and to draw a well designed recovery plan from in order for it to rise from its collapse. These recommendations include: a full do llarization program; reduction of government expenditures and taxes; implementation of a mor e flexible exchange rate; encouragement of free trade; finding ways to restore pub lic confidence in the banking system to stop the flight of capital.
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